An Automated Vehicle Expert Explains How Close We Are to Robotaxis
There’s Still Plenty of Work To Do
Humans are notoriously bad at estimating how long it will take to do something that hasn’t been done before, particularly when it comes to technology that doesn’t exist yet. Amara’s Law sums it up most succinctly: “We overestimate the effect of technology in the short-term and underestimate the effect in the long run.” The impact of automated driving systems (ADS) is a prime example. At some point, automated vehicles (AVs), including robotaxis, will likely become a primary means of transporting people and goods, but a lot has to happen between now and then.
AVs are an idea almost as old as electric and hybrid vehicles. Ferdinand Porsche built the first hybrid car, the 1901 Lohner-Porsche. But it took another century for the idea to become mainstream while the technologies matured. Even the power-split hybrid architecture popularized by Toyota with the Prius when it debuted in 1997 was patented nearly three decades earlier. Still, we lacked the electronic control systems and batteries to make it useful.
One of the earliest promotional examples of an AV was a 1956 General Motors film featuring the Firebird II concept. But conceiving an idea and making it commercially viable are very different things. It wasn’t until the DARPA…
